Oil subsidy reform and peacebuilding in Nigeria: Navigating socio-economic challenges and conflict dynamics

Abstract

The removal of fuel subsidies in Nigeria has been a contentious issue, as it intertwines economic policy with peacebuilding and conflict dynamics. Historically, these subsidies have served as a social contract, providing citizens with affordable fuel and fostering a sense of state legitimacy. However, the abrupt removal of subsidies without adequate compensatory measures has led to widespread protests and social unrest, highlighting the fragile nexus between economic reforms and social stability. Case studies, such as the 2012 "Occupy Nigeria" protests and the 2024 nationwide demonstrations, underscore the volatility of subsidy reforms in the absence of inclusive dialogue and transparent policy implementation. These events reveal that when perceived as unjust or poorly managed, economic decisions can escalate into significant conflict, undermining peacebuilding efforts. This paper examines the intersection of oil subsidy policies with peace studies and conflict resolution frameworks, emphasizing the need for a nuanced approach that integrates economic reforms with social cohesion and conflict prevention strategies. It argues that effective peacebuilding requires addressing the economic implications of subsidy removal, considering the socio-political context, and assessing the potential for conflict. The paper recommends that the implementation of subsidy reforms should be gradual. These should be accompanied by robust social safety nets, engaging civil society in policy dialogues, and ensuring transparency in the allocation of resources saved from subsidy removal. These steps help align economic policies with peacebuilding objectives, ensuring subsidy reforms do not jeopardize long-term social stability.