Police response time and crime deterrence: An empirical assessment of institutional effectiveness in Lagos, Nigeria
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.60787/mjrdp.vol15no1.171Keywords:
Police response time, crime deterrence, Lagos policing, dispatch efficiency, institutional effectiveness, quantitative analysis, organizational policingAbstract
The relationship between police response time and law enforcement efficiency is hotly contested. Studies of police response and law enforcement efficiency have, however, not been conducted in Sub-Saharan Africa, where police system conditions differ drastically from Western countries. The current study employs a quantitative approach in studying the relationship between police response time and the level of deterrence of crime in Lagos, Nigeria. The study uses a primary survey of 387 police officers from 15 area commands and secondary incident records from Lagos State Police Command over the period of January 2023 to December 2025. The author used ordinary least squares and binary logistic regression to test relationships between response time (dispatch time, deployment time, and total response time) and crime (arrest rate, crime clearance rate, injury severity to the victim). The analysis revealed that dispatch time is the greatest predictor of case resolution (β=0.39, p <.001); deployment time is also a predictor, but to a much lesser degree (β=0.17, p <.05). The author also revealed that response time effects were moderated by the type of call. For example, cases of in-progress incidents had an odds ratio of 1.74 in favor of arrest for each time unit (e.g., 5 min) reduction in response time, while for incidents that were reported retrospectively, the opposite was true (OR = 1.06, p >.10). An officer-to-population ratio of (β = -0.34, p <.001) is also an organizational factor. The author concludes that the officer-to-population ratio, coupled with the response time, explains most of the geographic and environmental variables. The author states that technology (computers with dispatching capabilities and surveillance) provides effects, but only in the presence of good governance and trust in institutions. The findings directly speak to police reform in Lagos and similar African cities, where the limited capacity of institutions affects how the operational speed of police transforms into deterrence.Downloads
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